Hello All,
Cathay Pacific announced an order for 30 A330-900s with rights for another 30. This is probably Airbus’ most satisfactory order year-to-date. Those aircraft will partially replace the carrier’s aging 43 A330-300s. This blog post will analyze why the carrier chose the type over the Dreamliner.
Pricing overcomes higher theoretical operating costs
The A330neo has materially lower capital costs than the Dreamliner. This is because the development cost was much lower, and Boeing is still dealing with large deferred production costs to recover its initial investment. Cathay Pacific undoubtedly got an excellent deal from Airbus.
The flip side is that the A330neo has a higher fuel burn, higher maintenance costs (due to the metal airframe), and a lower cargo belly capacity than the 787. Cathay’s A330neos will mostly operate on short intra-Asia routes where the fuel burn differential represents a small share of overall operating costs.
The carrier must also have gotten an excellent maintenance deal from Airbus and Rolls Royce to narrow the differential with the Dreamliner. As the largest A330-300 operator with 43 units, it also likely has an efficient in-house MRO operation for the type.
The main weakness is the lower freight capacity than the 787: 33 LD3s vs. 36 for the similarly-sized 787-9 without cabin crew rest area for the A330-900. Cathay Pacific will likely forego the cabin crew rest area on its A330-900 fleet due to the short average mission time.
Fleet commonality and earlier delivery slots
Cathay Pacific also has a fleet commonality advantage. The carrier will spend minimal amounts on training its A330ceo pilots to the A330neo. The carrier also has the option of a common pilot rating for the A330, A330neo, and A350. Ordering the Dreamliner would have required new training for its A330 pilots.
Lastly, the A330neo slot availabilities are far better than for the 787. While there are likely no more 787 slots left this decade (after accounting for the production delays), some A330neo slots might still be available in 2026, and for sure in 2027.
It is worth noting that Cathay is only the second carrier (along with Delta Air Lines) that operates 100 or more twin-aisle passenger aircraft and did not order or operate the Dreamliner.
Almost finalizing its fleet replacements
With this order, Cathay Pacific has almost finalized its fleet replacement plans:
The 43 A330-900s will be replaced by a combination of A321neos and 30 A330-900s.
The 17 777-300s will be replaced by 777-300ERs on intra-Asia routes.
The remaining 20 777-300ERs will be replaced by the 21 777-9s.
The six 747-400Fs will be replaced by six A350Fs.
The only remaining older-generation aircraft orders to place are:
Replacement of remaining (17) 777-300ERs. It will likely be a combination of A330neos, A350s, or 777-9s, depending on future traffic flows.
The replacement of 14 747-8Fs with A350F or 777-9s. This will depend on future cargo traffic flows and how the two large freighters perform once they enter service.
The future Cathay Pacific passenger fleet will include A321neos, A330-900s, A350-900s, A350-1000s, and 777-9s.
Impact on future aircraft campaigns
There are two major remaining twin-aisle aircraft campaigns that might conclude this year:
China Airlines A350-1000 or 777-9 to replace the 777-300ERs;
Turkish Airlines’ large order with Boeing, which will include more 787s and potentially the 777-9.
Cathay Pacific’s A330neo might impact the choices of another important set of airlines: mainland China operators, which still operate 202 A330ceos. Mainland Chinese airlines have placed nowhere near enough Dreamliners and A350 orders to replace those aging A330ceos. With far more limited 787 and A350 slots, will Mainland Chinese carriers order the A330neo and provide a major boost for Airbus’ program? Time will tell.