Hello All,
Like with previous instances of this mini-series, we will use US Department of Transportation data to focus on the busiest routes between the USA and the Middle East and compare them with 2019 traffic levels.
Higher traffic than pre-Covid
The top 10 city pairs between the USA and the Middle East had a total of 4,513k passengers in 2023, compared with 4,393k in 2019 (+2.7%). The table below shows the top 10 city pairs:
FromToPax Traffic (1000s)Change vs. 2019New YorkTel Aviv1,242-37DubaiNew York744-118DohaNew York601207Abu DhabiNew York37499DubaiSan Francisco284-30DubaiLos Angeles2821DubaiWashington275-17DubaiHouston26123DohaChicago24428Abu DhabiChicago24428Top 10Total4,513184
The busiest city pair, New York – Tel Aviv, was likely affected by the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Otherwise, traffic would likely have been higher. Three out of five of Emirates’ routes (out of Dubai) saw lower passenger traffic, while Qatar’s and Etihad’s had higher traffic than in 2019. It seems the latter two carriers have taken market share from Emirates.
Top Airport Shuffling
All but one of the top 10 routes to the Middle East goes to a “big three” Gulf carrier hub. Below is the airport tally:
Airports2023 Top 10 count2019 Top 10 countDubai (DXB)57Doha (DOH)21Abu Dhabi (AUH)21Tel Aviv (TLV)11
Doha and Abu Dhabi gained one route each at the expense of Dubai airport. The traffic change was most significant on the routes to New York.
The airport tally change was more visible on the United States side:
Airports2023 Top 10 count2019 Top 10 countNew York (JFK, EWR)44Chicago (ORD)20San Francisco (SFO)11Houston (IAH)11Los Angeles (LAX)11Washington (IAD)11Boston (BOS)01Seattle (SEA)01
Boston and Seattle were bumped out of the top 10 US airports at the expense of two routes to Chicago. The Boston and Seattle routes were both served from Dubai, while the Chicago routes were served from Abu Dhabi and Doha. It highlights Emirates’ market share loss in the US market at the expense of its closest rivals.
Conclusion
Passenger traffic between the Middle East and the United States was moderately higher in 2023 than in 2019. Emirates lost market share at the expense of Etihad and Qatar Airways. We will see whether the Dubai flag carrier will recover market share in 2024.